Here are my Unwritten rules for sports spreads -
1) if the underdog has a good chance to win I feel more comfortable taking the points
2) psychological element for people to be predisposed to take the favorite - with this rule i believe the favorite generally receives about 1-3 pts more than they would otherwise
3) expectations theory - some teams play better as underdogs because they are not expected to win. the converse- some teams play worse when they are expected to win - avoid the team that consistently loses when favored.
4) obvious: spread builds in 2-3 pts for home team favorite
5) the goal of vegas is to have equal betting on each side. the spread moves to engineer the 50-50 split. therefore the house makes all money on transaction basis, aka 'the juice' - just like goldman sachs.
6) first half of the nfl season is anybodys guess. things are so crazy because there is no recent history to go from. everything is based on last years performance - which may or may not hold true for the current season.
7) if you honestly don't have an intuition of what team to take, just take the points (i.e. - greenbay and pittsburgh)
8) second half of the season you have players 'checked out' when they are essentially out of it for the playoff chase. this may lead to weeks where blowouts are common.
9) always always expect the unexpected.
Online gambling ban in the U.S.
The brilliant lawmakers think that banning online gambling in the U.S. actually acts in the moral best interest of our citizens - we all know how prohibition worked out for Al Capone. Passing laws does not curb demand, it creates black markets. Markets that exist for activities the government has shunned because they do not act in the best interest of their constituents. How much tax revenue could be made from online gambling in the U.S.? Not only does legalization allow regulation, but it will bring in billions of dollars in tax revenue, that would otherwise not exist (not to mention create jobs). In England you can bet on the soccer (football) game, at the stadium!!!! Drugs are illegal, but that doesnt stop people from using. Alcohol used to be legal, but that didnt stop people from drinking. The markets exist, just not for the taxation and regulation purposes of the Federal Government. The government can refuse to allow an service or industry to be a legal operator - but the government can only deter demand on the margin - the margin that would probably not be participating if it were legal. My reasoning is that many people who choose to gamble or do drugs only do so for the thrill. Turning drugs or gambling into a legally sanctioned government regulated industry will more than likely strip away some of the glamor that exists. Just a hunch, but very obvious in certain industries that are exploited in movies, music, and media.
<http://sportsdirect.usatoday.com/odds/usatoday/odds.aspx>
Stocks I'm currently holding:
XOM Jan 2012, 60 strike Call option ( this will increase in value as pump price increases)
Stocks I like:
MO, PM, RSG, WM, TEVA, AVB, V, BAC
Economic trends:
asset price inflation
interest rates creeping up as recovery strengthens
double dip not probable until oil reaches 130+
slow and steady
pent-up demand for housing begins
house prices depend on rent, jobs, income, and demand
1) if the underdog has a good chance to win I feel more comfortable taking the points
2) psychological element for people to be predisposed to take the favorite - with this rule i believe the favorite generally receives about 1-3 pts more than they would otherwise
3) expectations theory - some teams play better as underdogs because they are not expected to win. the converse- some teams play worse when they are expected to win - avoid the team that consistently loses when favored.
4) obvious: spread builds in 2-3 pts for home team favorite
5) the goal of vegas is to have equal betting on each side. the spread moves to engineer the 50-50 split. therefore the house makes all money on transaction basis, aka 'the juice' - just like goldman sachs.
6) first half of the nfl season is anybodys guess. things are so crazy because there is no recent history to go from. everything is based on last years performance - which may or may not hold true for the current season.
7) if you honestly don't have an intuition of what team to take, just take the points (i.e. - greenbay and pittsburgh)
8) second half of the season you have players 'checked out' when they are essentially out of it for the playoff chase. this may lead to weeks where blowouts are common.
9) always always expect the unexpected.
Online gambling ban in the U.S.
The brilliant lawmakers think that banning online gambling in the U.S. actually acts in the moral best interest of our citizens - we all know how prohibition worked out for Al Capone. Passing laws does not curb demand, it creates black markets. Markets that exist for activities the government has shunned because they do not act in the best interest of their constituents. How much tax revenue could be made from online gambling in the U.S.? Not only does legalization allow regulation, but it will bring in billions of dollars in tax revenue, that would otherwise not exist (not to mention create jobs). In England you can bet on the soccer (football) game, at the stadium!!!! Drugs are illegal, but that doesnt stop people from using. Alcohol used to be legal, but that didnt stop people from drinking. The markets exist, just not for the taxation and regulation purposes of the Federal Government. The government can refuse to allow an service or industry to be a legal operator - but the government can only deter demand on the margin - the margin that would probably not be participating if it were legal. My reasoning is that many people who choose to gamble or do drugs only do so for the thrill. Turning drugs or gambling into a legally sanctioned government regulated industry will more than likely strip away some of the glamor that exists. Just a hunch, but very obvious in certain industries that are exploited in movies, music, and media.
<http://sportsdirect.usatoday.com/odds/usatoday/odds.aspx>
Stocks I'm currently holding:
XOM Jan 2012, 60 strike Call option ( this will increase in value as pump price increases)
Stocks I like:
MO, PM, RSG, WM, TEVA, AVB, V, BAC
Economic trends:
asset price inflation
interest rates creeping up as recovery strengthens
double dip not probable until oil reaches 130+
slow and steady
pent-up demand for housing begins
house prices depend on rent, jobs, income, and demand
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