The demographic trends are the primary driver for election results
in Virginia. This time around, those demographic trends were manifested in
voter turnout. Historically speaking, off-year elections will depress
voter turn-out which favors the Republican Party. The increasing share of
Northern Virginia voters was more than enough to offset low turnout among Black
voters in the South. The increasing proportion of Northern Virginia
electorate base will prove to be a strong obstacle for the Republican Party in
the years to come.
Geographically, Northern Virginia voters will compose an
increasing share of the electorate, creating a diversified, educated and income
driven-base. This happens to be the first time that Northern Virginia was
able to dominate the electorate in an off year-election. Economic growth
and population migration to the surrounding counties of Loudon (pop 340k),
Prince William (pop 430k), Fairfax (pop 1.1 million), Alexandria (pop 145k) and
Arlington (pop 220k) will surpass the rest of Virginia. Fairfax,
Loudon and Prince William are generally contested areas. Arlandria makes
up a strong Democratic base of urban development.
Cuccinelli did himself few favors in the areas of transportation,
essentially shooting half of the state in the foot (the other foot was shot
with social conservative hawkishness). It is widely assumed that the
McDonnell administration did an excellent job in organizing the base - focusing
on transportation issues in Northern Virginia, notably the Silver Line
extension and the development of High Occupancy Toll lanes on the Beltway.
It is important that Republicans not use this (Losing result) to
validate the existence of the extreme factions. In presidential
elections, increased share of the population voting will strongly favor Democratic
candidates. If you include the economic growth and demographic trends in
Northern Virginia, then it becomes apparent that the sweet tea line exists
south of the District -- along I-95 in the vicinity of Fredericksburg.
Previous Post from Sunday, July 29, 2012
Virginia politics, demographics and election trends
In this election cycle, Virginia has become an intense
presidential battleground state, as candidates blitzed the airwaves and crossed
the state in search of undecided voters. Historically, presidential elections
favored the Republican candidate, with President Obama's victory over Mr.
McCain in 2008 being the recent exception. The southern suburbs of
Richmond and Hampton Roads provide a diverse base of white and African-American
voters.
Income and race play a large role in the prospects for Mr. Romney
and Mr. Obama. Henrico County, encircling Richmond is 57% white. To the
south, Chesterfield County is 65% white, according to the 2010 Census. Blacks
are the largest minority group in the Richmond metropolitan area. Whites are
generally more educated and have higher incomes in Richmond's west end of
Henrico, leading along the I-64 corridor toward Glen Allen and Short Pump. This
is the district of Rep. Eric Cantor. The same is true of the western
suburbs on the south side of the James River. To the north and east of
the city, lies a demographic of predominantly African Americans, voting heavily
in the favor of Obama during the 2008 election. Henrico County went 56-44
to Obama while Chesterfield County voted 54-46 in favor of Mr. McCain.
Driving directly east of Richmond to the peninsula, showed high
density suburbs of Hampton Roads voting overwhelmingly in Obama's favor.
Surprisingly, the Virginia Beach suburb of Chesapeake went to President Obama's
favor 51-49. Virginia Beach by itself was a 50-49 split to Mr. McCain.
Virginia Beach and Chesapeake are 64% and 60% white, respectively.
The affluent suburbs of Washington DC tell an interesting story
regarding demographics and voting patterns. Outer suburbs of Loudon County are
54% in favor of Obama and 62% white. Prince William was 58% in favor of Obama
and 49% white. Obama mopped the floor in closer in suburbs of Fairfax,
Alexandria and Arlington, reaching 60%, 72% and 72% of voters, respectively.
These areas are highly educated, diverse and high income. Loudon has the
highest income and largest share of white voters among Northern Virginia
localities.
As education increases among white voters, the probability of
voting for President Obama increases. If you are Black, you will likely
vote for the President regardless of education. The farther south you go, the
less educated white voters go heavily in favor of Republicans. If the
President is to win Virginia, it is vital for him to hold onto his margin of
victory in Fairfax, Henrico, and Cheseapeake, while holding his own in Virginia
Beach and Chesterfield County. If voters perceive the local economy to be on
the upswing, the election will lean to Obama. However, if Romney approaches 60%
of voters in Chesterfield County, it may indicate the state is ripe for a
republican takeover. If the President loses ground in both Chesterfield and
Henrico, then look for Chesapeake and Virginia Beach to follow suit. If
the southern local economies falter (or perceive to be faltering), residents
may favor traditional republican ties.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/county/#VAP00map
http://projects.nytimes.com/census/2010/map
