In this election cycle, Virginia has become an intense presidential battleground state, as candidates blitzed the airwaves and crossed the state in search of undecided voters. Historically, presidential elections favored the Republican candidate, with President Obama's victory over Mr. McCain in 2008 being the recent exception. The southern suburbs of Richmond and Hampton Roads provide a diverse base of white and African-American voters.
Income and race play a large role in the prospects for Mr. Romney and Mr. Obama. Henrico County, encircling Richmond is 57% white. To the south, Chesterfield County is 65% white, according to the 2010 Census. Blacks are the largest minority group in the Richmond metropolitan area. Whites are generally more educated and have higher incomes in Richmond's west end of Henrico, leading along the I-64 corridor toward Glen Allen and Short Pump. This is the district of Rep. Eric Cantor. The same is true of the western suburbs on the south side of the James River. To the north and east of the city, lies a demographic of predominantly African Americans, voting heavily in the favor of Obama during the 2008 election. Henrico County went 56-44 to Obama while Chesterfield County voted 54-46 in favor of Mr. McCain.
Driving directly east of Richmond to the peninsula, showed high density suburbs of Hampton Roads voting overwhelmingly in Obama's favor. Surprisingly, the Virginia Beach suburb of Chesapeake went to President Obama's favor 51-49. Virginia Beach by itself was a 50-49 split to Mr. McCain. Virginia Beach and Chesapeake are 64% and 60% white, respectively.
The affluent suburbs of Washington DC tell an interesting story regarding demographics and voting patterns. Outer suburbs of Loudon County are 54% in favor of Obama and 62% white. Prince William was 58% in favor of Obama and 49% white. Obama mopped the floor in closer in suburbs of Fairfax, Alexandria and Arlington, reaching 60%, 72% and 72% of voters, respectively. These areas are highly educated, diverse and high income. Loudon has the highest income and largest share of white voters among Northern Virginia localities.
As education increases among white voters, the probability of voting for President Obama increases. If you are Black, you will likely vote for the President regardless of education. The farther south you go, the less educated white voters go heavily in favor of Republicans. If the President is to win Virginia, it is vital for him to hold onto his margin of victory in Fairfax, Henrico, and Cheseapeake, while holding his own in Virginia Beach and Chesterfield County. If voters perceive the local economy to be on the upswing, the election will lean to Obama. However, if Romney approaches 60% of voters in Chesterfield County, it may indicate the state is ripe for a republican takeover. If the President loses ground in both Chesterfield and Henrico, then look for Chesapeake and Virginia Beach to follow suit. If the southern local economies falter (or perceive to be faltering), residents may favor traditional republican ties.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/county/#VAP00map
http://projects.nytimes.com/census/2010/map
Income and race play a large role in the prospects for Mr. Romney and Mr. Obama. Henrico County, encircling Richmond is 57% white. To the south, Chesterfield County is 65% white, according to the 2010 Census. Blacks are the largest minority group in the Richmond metropolitan area. Whites are generally more educated and have higher incomes in Richmond's west end of Henrico, leading along the I-64 corridor toward Glen Allen and Short Pump. This is the district of Rep. Eric Cantor. The same is true of the western suburbs on the south side of the James River. To the north and east of the city, lies a demographic of predominantly African Americans, voting heavily in the favor of Obama during the 2008 election. Henrico County went 56-44 to Obama while Chesterfield County voted 54-46 in favor of Mr. McCain.
Driving directly east of Richmond to the peninsula, showed high density suburbs of Hampton Roads voting overwhelmingly in Obama's favor. Surprisingly, the Virginia Beach suburb of Chesapeake went to President Obama's favor 51-49. Virginia Beach by itself was a 50-49 split to Mr. McCain. Virginia Beach and Chesapeake are 64% and 60% white, respectively.
The affluent suburbs of Washington DC tell an interesting story regarding demographics and voting patterns. Outer suburbs of Loudon County are 54% in favor of Obama and 62% white. Prince William was 58% in favor of Obama and 49% white. Obama mopped the floor in closer in suburbs of Fairfax, Alexandria and Arlington, reaching 60%, 72% and 72% of voters, respectively. These areas are highly educated, diverse and high income. Loudon has the highest income and largest share of white voters among Northern Virginia localities.
As education increases among white voters, the probability of voting for President Obama increases. If you are Black, you will likely vote for the President regardless of education. The farther south you go, the less educated white voters go heavily in favor of Republicans. If the President is to win Virginia, it is vital for him to hold onto his margin of victory in Fairfax, Henrico, and Cheseapeake, while holding his own in Virginia Beach and Chesterfield County. If voters perceive the local economy to be on the upswing, the election will lean to Obama. However, if Romney approaches 60% of voters in Chesterfield County, it may indicate the state is ripe for a republican takeover. If the President loses ground in both Chesterfield and Henrico, then look for Chesapeake and Virginia Beach to follow suit. If the southern local economies falter (or perceive to be faltering), residents may favor traditional republican ties.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/county/#VAP00map
http://projects.nytimes.com/census/2010/map
