Tuesday, June 12, 2012

Game 1, Durant v. Lebron

1:31: Why is Mike Miller in the game?
1:16: D-Fish for 3, check that D-Money
1:00: Chalmers, when him and Battier are on, the big two need to let go, if they want to win
:48: Is Mike Miller still in the game?
:01: James Harden.
End of 1st:
Did the market go up today? What is up with commodities?

Before the game, Bryce Harper launched a 450 ft homer, hitting the upper deck in dead centerfield at the SkyDome. Wow.

The Thunder being in the Finals has put quite a bit of pressure on the Chesapeake Energy CEO. Investigations, allegations of billions of dollars in personal loans taken from the company has gotten the attention of regulators.  How else was he going to build himself the world's largest army?
2nd
11: 09: I have not noticed one single incident of whining, what has gotten into these guys? Definitely smarter over the past few games.
10:22: Battier. When he is on, he is on. He once dropped 40 at Duke if I remember correctly. Quintessential team player. Love his game.
9:48: Lebron hit number one (ft). and two.
9:33: Van Gundy said it perfectly. Good teams don't have power struggles.
9:10: Damn.
8:58: And one for Sergio.
6:50: The Fisher Monster.
Finally, the ECB guarantees bank deposits. Were they living under a cave since the 1933? I know the buildings are old in Europe, but deposit insurance is a fundamental aspect of financial stability.

5:12: A light push. What the f* kind of call was that? No blood. No foul.
4:47: This on the floor foul rule has becomes exponentially confusing. I always thought it was supposed to be very simple.
3:48: Westbrook always looks pissed off for some reason.
:31: The double techs have begun. Westbrook made a good play and then acted like an idiot.





Monday, June 11, 2012

Market calls Germany's bluff on Spanish bailout

The market essentially called Germany's bluff-- prompting heavy selling of Spanish bonds after the anticipated 'bailout' was nothing more than a few billion thrown at commercial banks.  As bond prices decreases, the yield or interest portion of the loan increases, making it more difficult for the government to meet its obligations.

It appears that 100 billion is a drop in the bucket for this risk averse market.  The 100 billion Euros thrown at Spanish banks can easily be outweighed by two or three hedge funds making leveraged bets. Never mind the billions of dollars (perhaps trillions) that are already betting against the Spanish bond prices, banks and the overall economy.

The ECB can go a long way by developing credible and well capitalized insurance facilities, aimed at government debt, private sector preferred shares and commercial deposits.  The longer the German's wait, the more expensive the proposition becomes, as the self-fulfilling prophecy takes hold.  For now, a TARP sized bailout should provide the needed confidence, along the lines of 700-900 billion (US dollars).  However, if further deterioration becomes a reality, the cost may escalate. Depending on the fallout, the necessary funds to keep confidence in the ECB monetary system could easily top 1 trillion (USD).

The Federal Reserve guaranteed the commercial paper markets during the 2008-2009 Financial Crisis, regardless of whether or not that debt was secured by collateral.  This was important for many institution's ability to raise capital to make the necessary weekly payrolls, without which we were all dead.  Insolvency may prove difficult to avoid if common equity continues to decline. Financing becomes more expensive, layoffs prompt layoffs and margin calls beget margin calls, compounding the effects of any runs on liquidity and deposits.  The run on confidence must be avoided at all costs to move the market back to a steady state.  The money chasers could care less if economic growth is normalized in the US and Germany if the countries around the EU are falling off a cliff. Germany must wake up and realize that they owe much of the power as an exporter to the inclusion of weak countries such as Greece and Italy. We may see Ms. Merkel get tough, but I am afraid it will only be when conditions are significantly worse.

For which he does not receive due credit -- Mr. Bush's second term in office allowed him to make the difficult decisions, granting Mr. Hank Paulson (aka 'The Godfather') the power to save the Financial System as we know it. Mr. Paulson's demeanor and the respect he commanded gave him the absolute authority to direct the banking system to do what was necessary to prevent complete catastrophe. It didn't hurt that he was worth hundreds of millions of dollars from tenure at GS, that just so happened that he had to put his money in a trust before taking position as Treasury Secretary.

Even with her authority, it appears Ms. Merkel does not have the clout and respect as Mr. Paulson commanded.  Perhaps she should try demanding, or better yet, earning respect from the markets.  Right now, the markets are wiping their ass with the ECB's pathetic attempt at a bailout. The time may be approaching for Ms. Merkel to (wo) man-up and take one for the team. After all, your days will be numbered.   

Thursday, June 7, 2012

Republicans favor European style austerity during economic uncertainty

It is clear that Republican House members favor European style austerity measures during a time of economic ambiguity.  Today, they stampeded towards tighter monetary policy, a stronger dollar, after coming off a jobless recovery from the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. Fortunately, the Fed is level-headed, taking a wait and see approach after two rounds of QE. Typically, in an election year, we can expect lower gas prices and little Fed intervention. However, this year may be different if Europe fulfills the on-going self-perpetuating prophecy of failure. If the situation does get worse, I have no doubt that Mr. Bernanke will take the lead to supply the market with the needed stimulus. China acted today to lower their benchmark rate.  If the U.S. engine follows suit, I expect we should see the Fed in action in the next 2-3 months.

It is always favorable to the challenger, Mr. Romney, to pursue office during a weak economy, given that persuading voters to favor change is much easier when people lack jobs.  My guess is Mr. Bernanke is none to happy with the harsh criticism the Fed receives from lawmakers who are not very knowledgeable of the policy blunders of the GD. Never mind that every single bank in the country was insolvent, until the Fed instilled confidence in the system and propped up institutions all over the world through secret liquidity operations. We will let history do the talking. Even Mr. Larry Kudlow acknowledged that the problem is deflation, not inflation, and we know he always hails "king dollar."

I am no fan of loser mentality, displayed by pessimistic approach during general elections. If lawmakers did their job as well as Mr. Bernanke performed his, perhaps we would not be stuck with high unemployment.  Infrastructure spending will go a long way to putting blue collar Americans back to work. This cohort is plagued by less education and hence, unemployment rates higher than the norm. It is not necessarily in their interest to support the Republicans, but it appears Mr. Romney will capture the majority of the vote from the uber rich and less educated states in the south. I anticipate those with bachelor's degrees or higher will vote favor the incumbent, although this depends on their own employment situation and standing in the current economy.   

Tuesday, June 5, 2012

Why does Lebron James whine after every call?

Watching the Eastern Conference Finals, or any game played by Lebron James, I notice one thing. It is not his scoring efficiency, size, athleticism and the way he so easily dominates the game. It is counter-intuitive to see him so well spoken in front of reporters, yet behave so childishly on the court. Case in point, a recent shot was blocked from behind by the Celts in the second quarter. Instead of hustling to the other end of the court, he turns to the officials holding his hands in the air "Where is the foul?" This is the playoffs. No blood. No foul. No crying.  Meanwhile, Boston has a 4 on 2 break, misses the layup, Garnett gets the rebound and makes the put back at the basket after being fouled (on a legitimate call).

Why does a grown man making hundreds of millions of dollars let his team down like this? Even worse, why does he cry to the officials after every little call does not go his way, in a game which there are easily 100 calls to make?  The trend appears to be contagious, as displayed by Wade and Bosh's equally childish demeanor. The whining hurts his team, reflects poorly on his character and leads to Mr. James receiving less benefit of the doubt in the long run. If Mr. James were to say, maybe (but lets not get too far ahead of ourselves), put his head down and run his ass to the other end instead of crying, perhaps he would receive the benefit of the doubt on the next call. I see some of this crying on television, but in person, the problem is far worse.

I don't recall Jordan, Bird or Magic crying to the officials after every little call. I only played freshmen basketball and I was far from the best on the team. However, I do know what it means to be humble. If I had ever displayed my disgust with officials as Mr. James does, my coach would have chewed my ass out--yelled for 15 minutes while spitting in my face, screamed at the top of his lungs and cussed me out so that the entire school could hear, just to make an example. He did do this on occasion for varsity baseball (thankfully not at me).

Being humble, hustling back on transition defense, not questioning every little call may go a long way to receiving the benefit of the doubt from the officials.  There is the added benefit of helping your team out, making your coach look good, and preventing the easy rebound in transition. Please, for the love of the game, stop acting like a spoiled little child on the court. And hit your free throws.