Friday, September 30, 2011

Theoretical floor in global economy

The markets have been a little crazy. Euro could unravel and the global economy could fall into another deep recession.

OR

There could be a theoretical floor, experienced during apocalyptic events such as the financial crisis, where certain companies will always produce X and earn Y at a constant currency rate. If you assume an inflation rate of 0%, XOM and JNJ and MO will always produce X goods and earn Y dollars in a functioning economy. The intrinsic value of services and goods provided will sustain a theoretical floor in the economy.

The theory is based on basic necessities of survival for a given population.  If the population were to decrease dramatically through a cataclysmic event, the bottom would be artificially lower, defined by a curve such as exp(-y). The exponential function was chosen because it represents the steepest slope on the population curve.

The financial crisis was one of the first events to test the theoretical bottom in the modern economy (1990+).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_function
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population